COVID-19

Admin said:
Valid points.
But still... They told us that covid is 10 times deadlier than flu. And if now covid kills 20 times less infected people, it would mean that now flu kills 2 times more people than covid.

The information about this covid pandemic is just not "mathematic friendly".
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Death toll yesterday (21 Jan '21); just shy of 4,000 people in the US died of CoVid complications. Simple numbers. No math required. I am not sure what numbers you are looking at, but I would recommend glancing at the Johns Hopkins website showing CoVid cases and casualties. Very sobering. No politics.

I for one wear a mask and respect social distance. It is a simple and easy thing to do out of respect of family, friends, citizens, and especially essential workers and healthcare workers in an increasingly over burdened system. If you become a victim or a vector of transmission, think of the health care costs you will incur for yourself and the system.

Wear a mask in public, and spend more time in the middle of a lake or stream surrounded by friendly salmonids.
 
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rogerdodger said:
Almost exactly what I was going to post, Vitamin D is a good example, a deficiency makes your COVID outcome much worse, that wasn't known right OFF. It seems logical that a novel virus can be much more deadly during the first 6 months to a year...once best practice treatments are identified, perhaps the death rate drops to be similar to seasonal flu.
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When we get through all of this (and we will), CoVid may become just as seasonally dangerous as the common cold or influenza. Hang in there, and socialise more with your favourite fish species.
 
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DOKF said:
Death toll yesterday (21 Jan '21); just shy of 4,000 people in the US died of CoVid complications. Simple numbers. No math required.
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Math is always required to be sure that we talk about reality, not about our version of it. At least for science type of people. ;)

3M people die in the US yearly. It's about 10k daily. They were tested for covid and 4k out of 10k had it. But if those 10k would be tested for flu, 4k would have it. Can we state that they died of flu?

DOKF said:
I am not sure what numbers you are looking at
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That table of yearly population change that I posted above.
DOKF said:
, but I would recommend glancing at the Johns Hopkins website showing CoVid cases and casualties.
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Can you please post the URL?
DOKF said:
I for one wear a mask and respect social distance.
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I do, too.
 
Admin said:
3M people die in the US yearly. It's about 10k daily. They were tested for covid and 4k out of 10k had it. But if those 10k would be tested for flu, 4k would have it. Can we state that they died of flu?
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That doesn't make sense, you are confused about something.

Let me toss out some info that might help you:

COVID is a coronavirus (it causes the common cold), COVID test detects only COVID, usually by the DNA of the virus.
Seasonal Flu is influenza virus, testing for flu (influenza) does not detect COVID.
People who die from COVID will not test positive for the normal flu.
People listed as dying from COVID now have tested positive for COVID (early in the pandemic, when testing was limited, some were counted as presumptive COVID because it was the best fit for their symptoms and there wasn't another obvious cause of death, but testing now is plentiful so all deaths can be confirmed.

Using your 10K per day deaths number, those all have a death certificate and cause, which is not from COVID because the 10K/day number is data from pre-COVID years. Normal flu deaths would be included in the 10K, so if on average say 40K/year die from flu, then of the 10K/day you would expect on average 109 of those deaths are from the flu.
If 4K die from COVID on a day right now (and these are confirmed by COVID test), the total US deaths that day will be 14K and that is 40% higher than normal which is what you are seeing in the graph I posted showing the extra COVID deaths.

cheers, roger
 
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Admin said:
Yes, I am.
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check what I added to my post, it might help.
 
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rogerdodger said:
People who die from COVID will not test positive for the normal flu.
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That's the main point. They will. Well, some of them. We have a loooot of different kinds of bacterias & viruses inside.
But just because they are inside us, doesn't mean that we gonna die, doesn't even mean that we gonna get ill.
And vise versa, if a dead body has some virus/bacteria in it, it doesn't mean that it was the death reason.

That's a complicated topic. We, people, don't know much about covid19 yet. I'm not saying that it's not killing people, I'm not saying we should ignore it. What I'm saying is that if all the media would daily tell us that the new flu virus mutation kills people as creasy (but there would be no new deadly mutation), be sure that US would have extra 400k deaths within a year in addition to usual 3M.
 
DOKF said:
For up to date CoVid case numbers check the Johns Hopkins university website below.
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Thanks!
 
Admin said:
That's the main point. They will. Well, some of them. We have a loooot of different kinds of bacterias & viruses inside.
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Nope. I think you are confusing a test for ANY amount of virus (either COVID or flu) with a test for a virus load high enough to be actively fighting and suffering from that virus. A positive test means enough virus is detected for you to have that disease.

We can expect total US deaths to be higher than predicted/expected for 2020 by the number killed by COVID minus reduction in deaths from some normal causes like motor vehicles (less miles driven) and regular flu.
 
rogerdodger said:
Nope. I think you are confusing a test for ANY amount of virus (either COVID or flu) with a test for a virus load high enough to be actively fighting and suffering from that virus. A positive test means enough virus is detected for you to have that disease.
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Hmm... You might be right about that.

rogerdodger said:
We can expect total US deaths to be higher than predicted/expected for 2020 by the number killed by COVID minus reduction in deaths from some normal causes like motor vehicles (less miles driven) and regular flu.
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Is there a site that shows the yearly birth/death count (regardless of covid)?
 
Admin said:
Is there a site that shows the yearly birth/death count (regardless of covid)?
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Certainly but I'm not sure when that data for the previous year becomes available.

based on the data used in the NYT article, which covered March 15 2020 to Jan 2 2021, the US had 424,500 more deaths than expected (18% above normal) but only 350,269 were attributed to COVID. More exact and full year 2020 data will certainly come soon but many experts are predicting that actual COVID deaths are higher that the currently reported COVID deaths, so this data is inline with that expectation.
 
rogerdodger said:
Certainly but I'm not sure when that data for the previous year becomes available.
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It will become available as soon as they decide what they should show. )

Let's put all the researches, graphs, and digits aside, and focus on how this story starts.
Once upon a time in one Chinese city a deadly virus world pandemic started. There is the biggest Chinese military bacterial laboratory in that town, but it was not related at all. It happened because one guy ate a bat...
 
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Admin said:
Valid points.
But still... They told us that covid is 10 times deadlier than flu. And if now covid kills 20 times less infected people, it would mean that now flu kills 2 times more people than covid.

The information about this covid pandemic is just not "mathematic friendly".
Click to expand...

Government numbers are always not "mathematically friendly".
Government "official numbers" are collected in a similar manner - "statistically unfriendly".
But forget the numbers as you dont want to be remembered as "a number". Wear a mask when at the store, stand UP-wind while in a conversation, and get vaccinated to reduce your chance of getting infected..... or not and roll the dice. Kind of like insisting on walking across a busy intersection in icy conditions.

Viruses will always mutate. The rule of thumb is that as they mutate they become more contagious but less serious/deadly. This one is no different, although the fear-mongering press in conjunction with control-freak politicians will say things like "we dont know for sure" or "there is a possibility of".
In a pandemic and with todays international travel, there are a number of mutations in action worldwide at the same time. Some of the mutations today will still put folk in bed for a week... maybe more. Other mutations will cause you to feel "not so good" for just a few days. Folk who were going to be dying soon anyway, have a better chance of "meeting their maker" a few days sooner - no matter the mutation or if they "only" get the flu. Sooner or later, Mother Nature WILL always win.
 
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